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Prediction for CME (2026-04-24T01:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-04-24T01:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45832/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs and covered by the nighttime data gap in STEREO A COR2. Its source is the X2.4 flare from Active Region 14419 (~N16W68) and the associated significant eruption seen as ejecta, dimming and EUV wave in SDO AIA 304/193/171 and GOES SUVI 304/284.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-27T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45855/1
Model Inputs:
2026-04-24T01:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=37.0, Lat.=30.0, Speed=772.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2026-04-24T05:30Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-04-27T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-04-27T20:27Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-04-27T13:05Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-04-26T05:22Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-04-29T09:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260424_053000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 57.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-04-24T16:30Z

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